As of Aug. 2, the showdown for Mobile’s mayoral seat was close … extremely close.
Lagniappe and the USA Polling Group sponsored a poll, which was conducted by Dr. Thomas Shaw with the Department of Political Science and Criminal Justice between July 22 and Aug. 4.
The results, which in 95 of 100 cases will be accurate with a plus or minus 4.7 percent margin of error, show incumbent Sam Jones and challenger Sandy Stimpson are in a dead heat, each having 47 percent of the vote. There are still 6 percent of people who are undecided and Dr. Doris Brown has less than 1 percent of the likely votes.
One of the other interesting results is that the poll results are primarily split by race. Jones is expected to have 84 percent of the African-American votes while Stimpson is expected to receive only 7 percent. Likewise Stimpson has 82 percent of the likely white votes and Jones has 14 percent.
Also, in seven key issues — Airbus, city’s crime rate, cruise ship, public openness, city’s finances, quality of life and stormwater runoff — the poll suggested Mobilians felt Jones would handle five of the seven issues better than the other candidates. The poll seemed to indicate Stimpson would handle the city’s finances and crime rate better than Jones.
Shaw explained the methodology for the poll.
“A random sample of 441 likely registered voters from throughout the city of Mobile were interviewed by landline telephone and cellular telephone,” he said in an email. “In addition to sampling error, there are other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or context effects that can introduce error or bias.<
“Reported percentages may not total to 100 percent due to rounding.
“Results for subgroups have the potential for somewhat larger variation than those for the entire population.
“The data have been weighted to account for known population characteristics related to age, race, gender, and geography.”
Stimpson said they are only focused on Aug. 27.
“The only poll that matters is Election Day, which is why we are working hard everyday to meet as many voters as possible – we want to earn their vote,” Stimpson said.
Calls to the Jones campaign for reactions were not returned before press time.