Harsin facing critical first season at Auburn

Auburn football has reached a crossroads.

Over the last decade-plus, there have been six teams at the top of the SEC. Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Florida and Texas A&M still occupy their lofty perches and are actually trending up.

Auburn is coming off a 6-5 season that included double-digit losses to Georgia, Alabama, Texas A&M and even Northwestern in the Citrus Bowl.

So, the Tigers hit the reset button by firing Gus Malzahn and hiring Bryan Harsin from Boise State.

Patience is needed for first-year coaches. But that’s not realistic for Harsin. Seven of the 14 SEC programs now have first- or second-year head coaches. So, having a new coaching staff is not an excuse for a lack of immediate success.

There’s no way to make up the talent gap with the top programs without showing success on the field.

Can Harsin and Auburn do that in 2021? There are certainly reasons to believe the season will get off to a good start.

But what’s realistic for the entire season? Let’s take a look at the schedule week by week. Note: Auburn is ranked No. 15 in the Football Power Index (FPI) produced by ESPN. The system is not infallible, but it gives a baseline of how good a team is projected to be.

Here is a look at all 11 regular-season games, with betting lines where available.

Akron: Sept. 4

FPI projected chance to win: 99.0%

Opponent FPI rank: No. 126

Point spread: Auburn -36.5

Analysis: The possibility Harsin will lose his first game is practically zip against the Zips. No matter how good or bad Auburn looks, there won’t be much to take away from this sleeper.

Record: 1-0

Alabama State: Sept. 11

FPI projected chance to win: 99.8%

Opponent FPI rank: None

Point spread: None

Analysis: If an SEC team is going to schedule a team from the inferior Football Championship Series level, it might as well be against a team from in-state. Again, Auburn won’t be showing its card in this mismatch, so any reaction to Auburn’s play will be an overreaction.

Record: 2-0

At Penn State: Sept. 18

FPI projected chance to win: 38.5%

Opponent FPI rank: No. 13

Point spread: Auburn +7.5

Analysis: The season really begins in an unfamiliar venue for the Tigers. The game will be played on ABC at night, which means it will likely be a whiteout at Beaver Stadium. The atmosphere should be electric. Auburn won’t be intimidated by the venue or the talent on the other side of the field. But the Nittany Lions may be too much to handle.

Record: 2-1

Georgia State: Sept. 25

FPI projected chance to win: 91.6%

Opponent FPI rank: No. 90

Point spread: None

Analysis: The Sun Belt should be improved this season. Still, Auburn should be able to handle the Panthers.

Record 3-1

At LSU: Oct. 2

FPI projected chance to win: 45.2%

Opponent FPI rank: No. 17

Point spread: Auburn +6.5

Analysis: Even good Auburn teams lose in Baton Rouge. Auburn has lost 10 in a row at LSU, with the last win coming in 1999. With a more talented roster, the Bayou Bengals will extend that streak.

Record: 3-2

Georgia: Oct. 9

FPI projected chance to win: 36.8%

Opponent FPI rank: No. 5

Point spread: Auburn +10

Analysis: Malzahn would still be Auburn’s coach if not for repeated disasters against the Bulldogs. Georgia is one of the trendy favorites to win the national championship.

Record: 3-3

At Arkansas: Oct. 16

FPI projected chance to win: 58.3%

Opponent FPI rank: No. 36

Point spread: None

Analysis: This is the week that could determine the success of Harsin’s first season. The Tigers get back on track on the road.

Record: 4-3

Ole Miss: Oct. 30

FPI projected chance to win: 68.4%

Opponent FPI rank: No. 20

Early point spread: None

Analysis: Bo Nix and the Tigers need to be ready to win a shootout. This one is going to be too close for comfort.

Record: 5-3

At Texas A&M: Nov. 6

FPI projected chance to win: 21.3%

Opponent FPI rank: No. 6

Point spread: Auburn +9

Analysis: The talent gap is widening between the Tigers and Aggies. An upset would be a major accomplishment and would help reverse that trend. But it’s not likely to happen.

Record: 5-4

Mississippi State: Nov. 13

FPI projected chance to win: 68.4%

Opponent FPI rank: No. 24

Early point spread: None

Analysis: Auburn is simply better than Mississippi State. This needs to be a win.

Record: 6-4

At South Carolina: Nov. 20

FPI projected chance to win: 74.8%

Opponent FPI rank: No. 65

Point spread: None

Analysis: Auburn was embarrassed by South Carolina last year. This Gamecocks team is less talented.

Record: 7-4

Alabama: Nov. 27

FPI projected chance to win: 18.7%

Opponent FPI rank: No. 1

Point spread: Auburn +17

Analysis: Football in Alabama is better when the Tigers and Tide are competing on the same level. That’s not where the rivalry is at this point.

Record: 7-5

Randy Kennedy, who has been a leading voice on the Gulf Coast sports scene for 19 years, writes a weekly column for Lagniappe. His sports talk show airs weekdays from 2-6 p.m. on Sports Talk 99.5 and the free iHeart app.