The outlook on the forecast

Spring is the season of renewal, when the trees and bees get busy showing, growing and continuing the cycle of life. Spring is also when the weather gets busier as disturbances move across the country, stirring up the atmosphere and putting people on alert for threatening conditions.

These disturbances can be small, weak and brief, or they can be large —like when the wind is way up and the tumultuous tempest is trailed by a dramatic downturn in temperature. Some of you notice there seem to be more threats in recent years than in decades ago. What’s happening? Technology! Advancements in radar, satellite and forecasting allow meteorologists to see things further out in time and farther out in distance. Just as in hurricane season, further out is always fuzzier and less certain.

For weeks, you’ve been presented with periodic outlooks for the threat of severe thunderstorms using the five-level scale of Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate and High. The outlook for severe thunderstorms can go out as much as five days before the actual threat; it didn’t always.

An outlook is not a specific forecast or a guarantee, but it is what meteorologists use when we see ingredients for something will be in place. That’s the same as when you hear a daily tropical weather outlook during hurricane season, which previews possibilities up to five days in advance. It’s also the same concept as the recent hurricane season outlook you may have heard from Colorado State University. Their outlook is for a more active than average season. In case you are wondering, each of the last six hurricane seasons was more active than average.

An outlook is about a possibility in a longer range. A weather outlook is not a weather forecast, even though they look very much the same in a graphic. A weather forecast is a specific prediction of what is most likely. Forecasts have timing and magnitude, but even a forecast is not a guarantee. From Colorado State University, the hurricane season outlook is above average, but since it includes exact numbers for types of storms, that makes it more like a forecast.

Whenever we are faced with a threatening weather situation, two other terms are analogous to “outlook” and “forecast.” The first is “watch.” Watch is like a short-term outlook. A watch means ingredients for a certain type of hazard will be in place over a general area in the near future, and you should watch for the threat that could develop.

A “warning” is more like a forecast. A warning says a specific type of threat is very likely or happening in a specific area, and you’ve got to act to protect yourself.

Aside from the improving science of detecting and forecasting weather, population growth and expansion means all weather threats will have a bigger impact. Combine that with many more media outlets and social media platforms sharing information, and yes, you are hearing more outlooks, forecasts, watches and warnings than ever before.